*Written by Lark Devon, author of adult fantasy romance where the research shows. Published October 19, 2026.* **Short answer:** The best-known tests do not find evidence that zodiac compatibility predicts marriage patterns, divorce, or personality matching. No finite set of studies proves a universal negative. Astrology can still function as a playful language for talking about relationships. --- <!-- anecdote? --> Would you swipe left on someone because your birth charts don't get along? Lots of people would, and I was rooting for the stars to have at least a little to say about who ends up together. In modern dating and romance culture, astrological compatibility is treated almost like a personality science. People check sun signs, compare elemental charts (fire, water, air, earth), and blame retrograde planets for bad breakups. Scientists and statisticians have tested astrological compatibility on large, real-world populations, including the birth dates of more than ten million married couples. ## The 10-Million Marriage Test: The England-and-Wales Census If astrological compatibility were real, you would expect to see its effects in population demographics: fire signs gravitating toward air signs, and water signs marrying earth signs. Incompatible pairs would avoid each other or break up before reaching the altar. Writing in 2008, demographer and social statistician **David Voas** at the University of Manchester described a test of this exact idea using England-and-Wales census data: 1. The Sample Size: Voas analyzed birth dates from more than ten million marriages in the 2001 England-and-Wales census, one of the largest tests of sun-sign pairing. 2. The Test: Voas compared the actual number of marriages for each combination of the twelve zodiac signs with the number random pairing would produce. 3. The Result: The sign-pair counts did not show the pattern astrologers would predict once ordinary demographic effects and data limitations were considered. 4. No Evident Sign-Pair Effect: Pairs labelled compatible were no more common than pairs labelled incompatible in this dataset. If sun signs exerted a sizeable, consistent pull on partner choice, a dataset this large should have revealed it. The study found no convincing sign-pair signal above the patterns expected from the population data. ## The Divorce Test: Michigan Marriages and Divorces Maybe people marry incompatible signs by mistake, but those marriages fail faster? Psychologist **Bernard I. Silverman** tested that question at Michigan State University in a classic 1971 study published in *The Journal of Psychology*: * The Methodology: Silverman gathered the marriage records of 2,978 couples and the divorce records of 478 couples in Michigan. * The Classification: He consulted professional astrologers to classify every possible zodiac pairing as either "harmonious" (compatible) or "conflicted" (incompatible). * The Findings: The "compatible" and "incompatible" sign pairs showed up about as often among the divorced couples as among the married ones. In this one Michigan sample, the astrologers' compatibility categories did not predict divorce. ## The Double-Blind Nature Trial: Shawn Carlson (1985) Astrologers often argue that simple sun signs are too crude for accurate personality assessment. They say a full natal chart is required, including rising signs, house placements, and planetary aspects. In 1985, physicist **Shawn Carlson** published a carefully controlled double-blind experiment in *Nature*: 1. The Collaboration: Carlson worked with the National Council for Geocosmic Research (NCGR), and its astrologers agreed to the study design before the test began. 2. The Protocol: Astrologers were given a client's accurate natal birth chart and three standardized psychological profiles (one belonging to the client from the California Psychological Inventory, and two control profiles). 3. The Task: The astrologers had to select which personality profile matched the birth chart. 4. The Outcome: The reported matching performance was close to the one-in-three chance level expected by the design. Even with full natal charts under rigorous conditions, this one experiment did not show matching above chance. ## Why Astrology Thrives: The Psychology of the Stars If prominent tests do not support astrological compatibility, why does it remain so popular? Psychologists and sociologists point to a few explanations: * The **Barnum / Forer effect:** Humans tend to believe that vague, generally positive personality descriptions (such as *"You have a deep need for other people to like and admire you, but you can be guarded"*) are personal insights meant just for them. * **Confirmation bias:** When an Aries partner acts impatient, we say, *"That is such an Aries thing to do!"* When that same Aries acts patient and gentle for three weeks, our brain ignores it because it doesn't fit the narrative. * A Fun, Low-Stakes Communication Tool: In modern dating, astrology gives people a low-pressure way to talk about how they act in relationships. Saying *"I need a lot of space because I have a Capricorn moon"* is much easier and less threatening than saying *"I have an avoidant attachment style and intimacy makes me anxious."* So the stars came up empty, and I'm a little betrayed. I'd still rather hear about someone's Capricorn moon than their attachment style on a first date. ## Myth vs. Reality: Astrological Compatibility | Pop-Culture Astrology Myth | Scientific & Empirical Reality | | :--- | :--- | | Compatible Signs Marry More Often | Voas found no meaningful compatible-pair pattern in more than 10 million England-and-Wales marriages. | | Incompatible Signs Divorce Faster | Silverman's Michigan sample found no useful relationship between sign categories and divorce. | | Astrologers Can Match Personalities | Carlson's *Nature* experiment did not find reliable above-chance chart-to-profile matching. | | Astrology Explains Bad Exes | Confirmation bias makes people remember traits that fit a sign while ignoring counter-evidence. | | People Believe It Because It's Real | Researchers point to the Barnum effect and the way astrology helps people talk about relationships. | > [!lore] Ten million marriages, no zodiac pattern, and a small town that still credits a brass lantern for its weddings. *Lantern's Glow* is on Lark Devon. [Start reading →](https://larkdevon.com/storytime/story/lanterns-glow) ## How I Used This in Lantern's Glow <!-- lark-relationship-inline-image -->  Ten million marriages and no sign-pair pattern should have ended the conversation. What fascinated me is why it didn't: the Barnum effect and confirmation bias. We keep the hits and forget the misses. That's the whole engine of the lantern's reputation in *Lantern's Glow*. Caitlin puts it better than I could, early in the book. People meet at the Willow Inn's party every year, whoever ends up married gives the credit to the lantern, and nobody comes back to yell at it when they break up. That's confirmation bias with a brass handle, and Caitlin being a librarian doesn't help the lantern's case. She's the one person in Glensford who'd ask for the rest of the numbers. It also makes the romance harder for her, which is the point. A skeptic can't lean on the lantern, and she can't blame it either. When a visiting illustrator named Liam turns out to be worth staying late for, she has to decide what she thinks of him without a sign to hide behind. --- ## What Caitlin Thinks > *Caitlin is the Glensford town librarian, and she decorates the Willow Inn every Halloween. Hand her the research. This is what you get.* --- Ten million marriages. I would like to shake David Voas's hand and then make him explain it to Maggie, who reads my horoscope out loud at the circulation desk every Monday and has never once been right. The Barnum effect is my favorite thing in this whole article. Say something vague enough and people hand you the credit themselves. Maggie's horoscopes. The lantern. My cousin's wedding toast. The lantern keeps its wins the same way. Couples who met at the party and got married tell the story every October. Couples who met at the party and broke up in March never come back to file a complaint. I've considered starting an actual ledger, with columns, and leaving it on the mantel. Maggie informs me that the illustrator staying at the inn this week is a Libra. I didn't ask. I don't care. I asked how she knows. --- > [!lore] The studies say the stars don't match anybody. The town of Glensford says a lantern does. The librarian would like to see the data. *Lantern's Glow* is on Lark Devon. [Meet Caitlin and Liam.](https://larkdevon.com/storytime/story/lanterns-glow) ## Related Questions ### Did the 10-million marriage study disprove astrology? Voas's analysis of more than ten million England-and-Wales marriages found no meaningful sun-sign pairing pattern beyond what the population data predicted. It is strong evidence against that specific claim, not a proof about every astrological system. ### Can astrologers match personalities to birth charts? Carlson's 1985 *Nature* study found no reliable above-chance matching of natal charts to standardized profiles under its protocol. The reported result was close to the one-in-three chance level, rather than a decisive demonstration of chart accuracy. ### What is the Barnum effect in astrology? The Barnum effect (or Forer effect) is a psychological phenomenon where individuals believe that generic, universally flattering personality descriptions apply specifically to them, leading people to perceive high accuracy in vague horoscopes. ### Why do people find astrology useful in dating? Some sociologists and psychologists argue that astrology serves as a fun, low-stakes language that allows dating partners to discuss emotional needs, personality quirks, boundaries, and communication styles without feeling judged or clinical. ## Related Reading - [Love Magic Was the Most Common Magic: What the Trial Records Show](https://larkdevon.com/blog/love-magic-was-the-most-common-magic-what-the-trial-records-show) - [The Witch Trials Weren't About Magic: What Historians Found in the Archives](https://larkdevon.com/blog/the-witch-trials-werent-about-magic-what-historians-found-in-the-archives) - [Familiars: Why the Witch Gets a Cat](https://larkdevon.com/blog/familiars-why-the-witch-gets-a-cat) - [Tarot Was a Card Game for Centuries: How It Became Divination](https://larkdevon.com/blog/tarot-was-a-card-game-for-centuries-how-it-became-divination) - [The Grimoire Trade: Who Actually Owned Spellbooks?](https://larkdevon.com/blog/the-grimoire-trade-who-actually-owned-spellbooks) - [Samhain to Halloween: How a Fire Festival Became Date Night](https://larkdevon.com/blog/samhain-to-halloween-how-a-fire-festival-became-date-night) - [Cunning Folk: The Village Magic Workers History Forgot](https://larkdevon.com/blog/cunning-folk-the-village-magic-workers-history-forgot) ## Sources 1. Voas, David (2008). "Ten Million Marriages: An Astrological Detective Story". *Skeptical Inquirer*, 32(2), 26–29. [Article](https://skepticalinquirer.org/2008/03/ten-million-marriages-an-astrological-detective-story/). 2. Silverman, Bernie I. (1971). "Studies of Astrology". *The Journal of Psychology*, 77(2), 141–149. DOI: 10.1080/00223980.1971.9916861. 3. Carlson, Shawn (1985). "A double-blind test of astrology". *Nature*, 318(6045), 419–425. DOI: [10.1038/318419a0](https://doi.org/10.1038/318419a0). 4. Dean, Geoffrey, & Kelly, Ivan W. (2003). "Is Astrology Relevant to Consciousness and Human Experience?". *Journal of Consciousness Studies*, 10(6–7), 175–198. 5. Campion, Nicholas (2012). *Astrology and Popular Religion in the Modern West: Prophecy, Cosmology and the New Age Movement*. Routledge. ISBN: 978-1409435143.